The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured 240 seats in the recent Lok Sabha elections, significantly fewer than the 370 they aimed for and well below the 303 they won in 2019. With the help of their National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners' 53 seats, they managed to form the government for a third term. However, the election results could have taken a very different turn had Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) joined the opposition's INDIA bloc.
A major portion of the BJP's lost seats came from Uttar Pradesh, a state where the party has enjoyed dominance since the 'Modi wave' of 2014. In 2019, the BJP won 62 seats and nearly 50% of the votes in Uttar Pradesh, with their ally Apna Dal (Sonelal) adding two more. This time, the BJP's tally dropped to 33 seats with a vote share of 41.3%. Meanwhile, the BSP contested 79 seats, securing 9.4% of the votes but winning zero seats.
The critical point here is that in 16 constituencies, all won by the BJP or its ally, the BSP finished with more votes than the winning margin. Had Mayawati been part of the opposition, her votes might have shifted, potentially reducing the BJP's count by these 16 seats. These constituencies include Akbarpur, Aligarh, Amroha, Bansgaon, Bhadohi, Bijnor, Deoria, Farrukhabad, Fatehpur Sikri, Hardoi, Meerut, Mirzapur, Misrikh, Phulpur, Shahjahanpur, and Unnao.
In some cases, like Bansgaon, Farrukhabad, and Phulpur, the BJP's winning margins were razor-thin, with less than 5,000 votes, while the BSP candidates received significant votes. For example, in Meerut, the BJP won by 10,585 votes, and the BSP got 87,025. In Bhadohi, the BJP won by 44,000 votes, and the BSP candidate received over 155,000 votes.
If these 16 seats had flipped, the BJP would have ended up with 224 seats, and the NDA with 277, just five above the majority mark. This scenario would have positioned the INDIA bloc with 248 seats, insufficient to form the government but enough to highlight the crucial 'kingmaker' role of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) led by Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu and the Janata Dal (United) led by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
The TDP won 16 seats, and the JD(U) secured 12. Without their support, the BJP coalition would have only 265 seats, not enough for Narendra Modi to be sworn in for a historic third term. The importance of Naidu and Kumar is evident, as Modi highlighted them in his victory speech and planned for their presence when calling on President Droupadi Murmu to stake the claim for government formation.
Though no formal meeting occurred, sources confirmed that the BJP secured written letters of support from these key allies. Modi is now set to be sworn in as Prime Minister this weekend, making him the second three-time PM after Jawaharlal Nehru. Meanwhile, the opposition, sensing an opportunity, met in Delhi, with speculation rife about attempts to flip the 28 seats held by Naidu and Kumar.
Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge's statement post-meeting emphasized the opposition's strategy: "We will take appropriate steps at the appropriate time to realize people's desire not to be ruled by BJP."
In conclusion, the BJP's path to power was far from smooth, and the inclusion of Mayawati's BSP in the INDIA bloc could have dramatically altered the political landscape. The importance of strategic alliances and the pivotal role of kingmakers like Naidu and Kumar cannot be overstated in this closely contested election. As the political chess game continues, the coming days will reveal how these alliances shape the future of India's governance.
