In a move that has sent shockwaves through India’s export sector, the United States has begun imposing steep 50 per cent tariffs on a wide range of Indian goods from Wednesday. The impact is expected to be devastating, especially for labour-intensive industries like textiles, gems and jewellery, shrimps, carpets, furniture, and handicrafts, which depend heavily on the American market.
According to estimates by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), India’s exports to the US could plunge by 40–45 per cent in 2025-26, falling to just USD 49.6 billion compared to nearly USD 87 billion in 2024-25. This marks one of the sharpest declines in bilateral trade in recent history.
Textiles & Apparel on the Edge
The textile and apparel industry, which sends almost one-third of its exports to the US, is bracing for massive losses. With Indian products now far more expensive, rivals from Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Cambodia are expected to capture market share. Industry associations have urgently appealed for cash relief packages and loan moratoriums to protect jobs in mills and factories across India.
Jewellery Exports Under Threat
India’s gems and jewellery sector, which relies on the US for nearly USD 10 billion in exports (30% of global trade), faces a grim future. The 50 per cent tariff is likely to price Indian jewellery out of the American market. Exporters warn of widespread job losses in polishing and manufacturing hubs and are demanding a special government scheme to absorb part of the additional costs.
Shrimp Industry Faces a Collapse
Shrimp exporters, who depend on the US for nearly half of their revenue, are staring at steep losses. The tariff will slash profit margins and could bring exports to a near standstill. Since shrimp farming and processing provide livelihoods to thousands in coastal states, experts fear large-scale unemployment and social distress.
Carpets, Furniture & Home Textiles Hit Hard
India’s carpets, furniture, and home textiles industries, which earn 60–70 per cent of their revenue from exports, are equally vulnerable. With US consumer spending already slowing, credit rating agency Crisil has warned of a double blow — falling demand and crippling tariffs.
Competitors Ready to Benefit
Trade analysts say this tariff war will benefit India’s competitors. Countries such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and China currently face lower US tariffs, making their goods cheaper and more attractive. “The US market India painstakingly built over decades may now slip into the hands of rivals,” a trade expert warned.
Not All Sectors Hit, But Risks Remain
While about 30 per cent of India’s exports — including pharmaceuticals, electronics, and petroleum products — remain duty free, uncertainty looms large. President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned of further hikes if companies do not shift manufacturing to the US, raising fears of an even wider trade assault.
Massive Job Losses Feared in India
The US accounts for 20 per cent of India’s total exports, making it one of New Delhi’s most crucial trade partners. Experts fear that these punitive tariffs could push several industries to the brink of collapse, triggering massive layoffs in textile mills, jewellery workshops, shrimp farms, and carpet-making hubs across the country.
